Introduction

I am a PhD candidate at the University of Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute, under supervision of Cars Hommes and Joep Sonnemans. I will defend my thesis “Expectations and bubbles in asset market experiments” in May 2019.

My main research fields are behavioral and experimental economics, with a focus on experiments in macroeconomics and finance.

I am currently a job market candidate at the Tinbergen Institute (placement director: Eric Bartelsman). You can contact me at m.hennequin@uva.nl.

Working Papers

JOB MARKET PAPER
Experiences and expectations in asset markets: an experimental study

Link to latest version

This paper presents experimental evidence that experienced price patterns in asset markets have a large impact on expectations and thereby affect the (de)stabilization of asset prices in the future. In a controlled learning-to-forecast experiment, subjects first experience a stable or a bubbly asset market before entering into a same- or mixed-experience market. In markets where all subjects experienced stability, convergence to the fundamental price is faster. Bubble formation is faster in markets where all subjects experienced bubbles. In mixed-experience markets, dynamics can go both ways: prices either stabilize or destabilize. Heterogeneity in expectations is larger when more subjects have experienced bubbles before.

Managing bubbles in experimental asset markets with monetary policy

(with Cars Hommes)
Link to latest version

We study the effect of a "leaning against the wind" monetary policy on asset price bubbles in a learning-to-forecast experiment, where prices are driven by the expectations of participants in the market. We find that a strong interest rate response is successful in preventing or deflating large price bubbles, while a weak response is not. Giving information about the interest rate changes and communicating the goal of the policy increases coordination of expectations and works stabilizing. When the steady state fundamental price is unknown and the interest rate rule is based on a proxy instead, the policy is less effective.

Coordination on bubbles in large-group asset pricing experiments

(with Te Bao, Cars Hommes and Domenico Massaro; revise and resubmit at the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control)
Link to latest version

We present a large-group experiment in which participants predict the price of an asset, whose realization depends on the aggregation of individual forecasts. The markets consist of 21 to 32 participants, a group size larger than in most experiments. Multiple large price bubbles occur in six out of seven markets. The bubbles emerge even faster than in smaller markets. Individual forecast errors do not cancel out at the aggregate level, but participants coordinate on a trend-following prediction strategy that gives rise to large bubbles. The observed price patterns can be captured by a behavioral heuristics switching model with heterogeneous expectations.

Planar learning-to-forecast market games

(with Cars Hommes and Eva Levelt, work in progress)

In this project, we investigate how expectation formation in a two-dimensional market experiment depends on the eigenvalues of the underlying model. A motivating example of such a model is the New Keynesian framework. Our findings suggest that eigenvalues can be used as predictors for the stability of equilibria. In the case of positive real eigenvalues we observe a change from stable to unstable dynamics inside the unit circle. We also find that complex eigenvalues give for more stable dynamics than their real counterparts. Furthermore, we find evidence that participants consider the interaction between the two variables in making their predictions, suggesting the need for some sophistication in generalizing expectation formation models to higher dimensions.

Online learning-to-forecast experiments with groups of 15 vs. 500 participants

(with Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker and Joep Sonnemans, work in progress)

CV

View CV in PDF

Please see my CV for more information about my education, research, teaching and work experience.

My academic references are:
Prof. Cars Hommes, University of Amsterdam (c.h.hommes@uva.nl)
Prof. Joep Sonnemans, University of Amsterdam (j.h.sonnemans@uva.nl)
Prof. John Duffy, University of California, Irvine (duffy@uci.edu)

Contact

Email
m.hennequin@uva.nl
Telephone
+31 (0)20 525 4125
Visiting address
REC E3.28
Roetersstraat 11
1018 WB Amsterdam
Postal address
PO Box 15867
1001 NJ Amsterdam
The Netherlands